🌨️ Winter 2025 Forecast: NOAA Predicts Warmer South, Colder North — What to Expect Across the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official Winter 2025 Outlook, and the results reveal an interesting mix of contrasts across the United States. While the northern and western regions may experience cooler and wetter conditions, much of the southern and eastern U.S. is expected to face a milder and drier winter. Watch complete podcast video Winter 2025 Forecast: NOAA Predicts Colder North & Warmer South | USA Weather Outlook

This comprehensive infographic visualizes NOAA's Winter 2025 forecast, highlighting a distinct division across the U.S.: a "Cooler, Snowier North" and a "Warmer, Drier South," largely driven by the La Niña pattern. It also contextualizes these predictions within broader long-term climate trends, including warming winters and shifts in snowfall patterns, emphasizing the importance of staying informed and prepared for both expected conditions and potential extreme weather variations.

NOAA’s Winter 2025 forecast highlights a colder, wetter season for the northern U.S. and milder, drier conditions for the southern regions due to ongoing La Niña patterns.

This forecast comes as part of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal analysis, providing an overview of temperature and precipitation trends from December through February.

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🌡️ Temperature Trends: A Tale of Two Winters

According to NOAA’s 2025 winter projection, the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest are likely to face cooler-than-average temperatures, meaning an increased chance of snow and longer cold spells.

In contrast, the southern and eastern states — including Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas — could see warmer-than-normal temperatures, leading to milder winter days and reduced snowfall.

NOAA's Winter 2025 temperature projection highlights a "tale of two winters" for the United States, driven by La Niña. Cooler-than-average conditions are expected for the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest, increasing the likelihood of snow and prolonged cold. Conversely, the southern and eastern states, including Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas, are forecast to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures, leading to milder days and reduced snowfall. It's important to remember these are seasonal averages for the December-February period, not daily forecasts.

NOAA emphasizes that these are seasonal averages, not daily forecasts. That means while one month could feel typical, another could be warmer or colder — ultimately shifting the three-month average above or below normal.

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🌧️ Precipitation Outlook: Wetter North, Drier South

While NOAA’s winter outlook does not specifically predict snowfall, it offers valuable clues about precipitation trends.

NOAA's Winter 2025 precipitation outlook indicates a clear divide across the U.S., with above-average precipitation expected in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Great Lakes. This could mean heavier snowfall if temperatures are cold enough. Conversely, the Southern U.S., from California to the Southeast, is forecast for below-average precipitation, resulting in drier and milder conditions. This pattern aligns with the typical La Niña influence, which generally shifts wet weather northward.

• The Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Great Lakes regions are expected to receive above-average precipitation. If temperatures drop sufficiently, that could translate into heavier snowfall.

• The Southern U.S., stretching from Southern California through Texas and the Southeast, will likely experience below-average precipitation, meaning drier and milder conditions overall.

This pattern fits with the La Niña climate setup, which tends to shift wet weather northward and keep the southern regions dry.

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🌎 Climate Trends and Warming Winters

According to both NOAA and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. has been getting warmer each season since the early 1900s — with winter showing the fastest rate of warming.

This infographic illustrates the significant warming trend in U.S. winters since the early 1900s, with winters warming faster than any other season—about 3°F (1.7°C) over the last century. Winter 2023-24 was notably the warmest in 130 years. Alongside this steady trend, recent years have seen extreme variations, including record snowfall in the southern states in January 2025 causing major disruptions, a prolonged snow drought in the Northeast ending in 2024, and a national reduction in snowfall, with nearly two-thirds of U.S. locations receiving less snow than in the early 1970s. These trends highlight shifting climate dynamics.

Winters across the contiguous U.S. have warmed by about 3°F (1.7°C) over the past century. NOAA reported that Winter 2023–24 was the warmest winter in 130 years, with over half the states experiencing record warmth.

Recent years have also seen extreme variations:

• Record-breaking snowfall in the southern states in January 2025 that caused major disruptions.

• A snow drought in the Northeast lasting over 700 days, only ending in 2024.

Data from Climate Central shows that nearly two-thirds of U.S. locations now receive less snow than they did in the early 1970s — a sign of shifting climate dynamics.

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🌊 The Role of La Niña and ENSO in Winter 2025

One of the biggest influencers of this year’s forecast is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring pattern of ocean temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean.

Currently, the ENSO is in a La Niña phase — marked by cooler-than-average Pacific waters — and is expected to continue through most of the winter before turning neutral in early spring.

NOAA's Winter 2025 climate forecast, heavily influenced by the La Niña phase of ENSO, anticipates a clear division across the United States. The Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions are projected to experience cooler and wetter conditions, while the southern U.S. is expected to see warmer and drier weather. These patterns are consistent with historical La Niña winters.

Historically, La Niña winters bring:

• Cooler and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes.

• Warmer and drier weather across the southern U.S..

This is exactly the setup NOAA predicts for Winter 2025.

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🌨️ Snowfall Expectations for Winter 2025

While NOAA doesn’t directly forecast snow totals, its precipitation maps offer strong hints. The northern half of the country — particularly the Rockies, Plains, and Great Lakes — could see more frequent snow events if cold air aligns with moisture surges.

The northern U.S. could see frequent snow events this winter if cold air meets moisture surges, while the South and Mid-Atlantic are expected to remain mostly snow-free.

The South and coastal Mid-Atlantic regions may experience little to no snowfall, maintaining mild temperatures throughout most of the winter.

While NOAA's winter outlook doesn't provide direct snow totals, this map visualizes the likely snowfall expectations for Winter 2025. The northern half of the U.S., particularly the Rockies, Plains, and Great Lakes, is projected to experience more frequent snow events if cold air aligns with moisture surges. In contrast, the South and coastal Mid-Atlantic regions are expected to see little to no snowfall, maintaining milder temperatures throughout most of the winter. This outlook is based on precipitation trends and cold air alignment, not a direct snow total forecast.

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🧭 How to Prepare for Winter 2025

Here are a few quick takeaways for residents across the U.S.:

• Northern states: Prepare for potentially heavy snow and icy road conditions.

• Southern states: Expect mild temperatures but stay alert for dry spells and fire risks.

• Travelers: Stay updated with regional forecasts and road advisories.

• Energy users: Anticipate variable heating needs — especially during short cold bursts.

his "U.S. Ready Guide" provides essential takeaways for preparing for Winter 2025 based on NOAA projections. Northern states should brace for heavy snow and icy roads, while southern states can expect milder temperatures but need to stay alert for dry spells and increased fire risks. Travelers are advised to monitor regional forecasts and road advisories. Energy users should anticipate variable heating demands, particularly during sudden cold snaps.

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🌐 Conclusion

The Winter 2025 forecast reveals a clear divide across America: a cooler, snowier north and a warmer, drier south. While this pattern aligns with typical La Niña years, short-term surprises — like powerful snowstorms or sudden warmups — can still occur.

The Winter 2025 forecast presents a distinct division across the U.S., with a cooler, snowier north and a warmer, drier south, consistent with typical La Niña years. Despite this general pattern, short-term extreme weather events like intense snowstorms or sudden warmups can still occur. Given ongoing long-term climate shifts, staying informed about these trends is crucial for communities, travelers, and policymakers to prepare effectively for the upcoming winter.

As the U.S. continues to experience long-term climate shifts, staying informed about these trends helps communities, travelers, and policymakers prepare more effectively.

Stay tuned with AHA Apex Wing for more weather insights, climate updates, and educational coverage on changing global patterns.

Watch complete podcast video Winter 2025 Forecast: NOAA Predicts Colder North & Warmer South | USA Weather Outlook

🔗 Source & Reference

Information and data for this article were referenced from the official report published by Yahoo News:
👉 Winter 2025 Forecast: What to Expect Based on Where You Live in the U.S. — Yahoo News

(Article by Kyle Reiman and Kenton Gewecke, published October 18, 2025)

🔗 Read article on linkedIn:- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/winter-2025-forecast-noaa-predicts-warmer-south-colder-north-tiodf

Disclaimer for Winter 2025 Forecast Images:

The images provided herein are visual representations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Winter 2025 Outlook, informed by La Niña patterns and broader climate trends. While these graphics are designed to illustrate general temperature, precipitation, and snowfall probabilities for the contiguous United States from December through February, they are based on seasonal averages and projections.

These images are not daily forecasts and should not be used for immediate operational decisions or specific localized predictions. Weather can be highly variable, and short-term anomalies, such as individual storms or unseasonably warm periods, are always possible.

Users should consult official, real-time weather forecasts and advisories from NOAA and local meteorological services for the most current and precise information relevant to their specific locations and needs. AHA Apex Wing presents this information for educational and informational purposes only, to aid in strategic planning and preparedness discussions.