Can Pakistan Really Sell Oil to India? Trump’s Remark Sparks Debate
U.S. President Donald Trump recently stirred both curiosity and controversy by suggesting that Pakistan could one day sell oil to India. Speaking during the announcement of a U.S.–Pakistan trade and energy partnership, Trump claimed Pakistan has “massive oil reserves” and hinted at the possibility of future exports to India.
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| Donald Trump’s statement on Pakistan’s oil potential and possible exports to India has ignited regional energy debate. |
This statement has generated considerable discussion across South Asia and beyond. But how realistic is this idea?
Pakistan’s Actual Oil Reserves – Fact Check
Trump’s remark implies Pakistan has vast, untapped oil resources. In reality, Pakistan’s proven crude oil reserves are estimated between 234 million to 353 million barrels, placing it around 50th–55th globally.
By comparison:
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India’s proven reserves are around 4.8–5 billion barrels (almost 14 times greater than Pakistan’s proven reserves).
Some analysts suggest Trump may have referred to technically recoverable shale oil, which, according to a 2015 U.S. EIA report, is estimated at 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan versus 3.8 billion for India. However, these figures are theoretical and do not represent commercially viable or proven reserves.
Could Pakistan Export Oil to India?
Infrastructure & Investment Gaps
Pakistan currently does not have the infrastructure, international investment, or advanced drilling technology required to exploit these supposed shale reserves. Developing them would take years, significant funding, and foreign expertise.
Geopolitical & Trade Realities
Relations between Pakistan and India have historically been tense. Energy trade has been minimal and subject to political volatility. For oil exports to India to become a reality, it would require:
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Improved bilateral relations
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Long-term energy agreements
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Substantial cross-border infrastructure (pipelines, trade routes, etc.)
India’s Energy Policy & Trump’s Pressure
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, relies heavily on discounted Russian crude oil since 2022. Even after Trump’s 25% tariff threat on countries importing Russian crude, India reaffirmed its stance to continue Russian oil purchases.
Indian industrialists and business leaders were skeptical of Trump’s claim. Harsh Goenka, a leading industrialist, humorously remarked that Pakistan selling oil to India is like “a tailender hitting a triple century in a T20 match”—technically possible but practically improbable.
Expert Opinion – Why Trump Said It
Many analysts believe Trump’s statement was more geopolitical messaging than economic forecasting. It:
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Pressures India over its Russian energy imports
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Positions the U.S. as a potential partner for Pakistan’s resource development
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Sends a signal of possible future U.S.-backed regional energy cooperation
Conclusion
Trump’s idea of Pakistan selling oil to India is speculative at best. While Pakistan does have potential shale oil resources, their commercial development faces significant challenges:
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Limited infrastructure and technology
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Political instability
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Strained India–Pakistan relations
For now, India’s energy strategy remains unchanged, focusing on diverse global sources—with Russian crude still a key supplier.
Trump’s comment may be seen as a strategic move to reshape regional energy discussions, but it is unlikely to turn into reality in the near future.
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